WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Millions of displaced Iranians find refuge among relatives and friends, while Israel escalates air attacks

29 March 2026: Four weeks into the US-Israeli war on Iran, the displacement crisis inside the country has reached a scale that rivals any in recent history, yet it remains far less visible than the catastrophe unfolding in Lebanon. Communications blackouts, internet shutdowns and severely disrupted infrastructure have made it extremely difficult for aid organisations and journalists to track what is happening on the ground. What is clear is that millions of Iranians have fled their homes, that the areas they fled to are no longer safe, and that the humanitarian response is critically underfunded.

 

3.2 million Iranians displaced and 61,000 homes destroyed

The most recent official assessment, published by the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) on 12 March, estimated that up to 3.2 million people, between 600,000 and one million Iranian households, had been internally displaced since the war began on 28 February. UNHCR warned at the time that the figure was likely to continue rising.

 

The Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC), publishing on 27 March, confirmed the 3.2 million figure remains the reference point, while noting that Iran's health ministry reports 1,500 people killed and 18,551 injured between 28 February and 25 March alone, and that over 81,000 civilian units have been damaged or destroyed, including 61,000 homes, 19,000 commercial units and 275 medical facilities. Given the continued and intensifying bombardment since 12 March, the true displacement figure is almost certainly higher.

 

For context, 3.2 million represents more than 3.5 per cent of Iran's entire population of 90 million, uprooted in a matter of weeks.

 

Destinations of safety are now under Israeli attack

In the opening days of the war, the primary movement was from Tehran and other major urban centres northward toward the Caspian Sea coast, the holiday towns and rural areas of Gilan and Mazandaran provinces, including Rasht, Chalus, Bandar Anzali and Mahmudabad. These destinations, familiar to Tehranis as weekend retreats, became the refuge of choice for hundreds of thousands of families fleeing the bombing of the capital.

 

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) confirmed that people had been leaving major cities for the relative safety of the Caspian countryside north of Tehran. The IOM's chief of mission in Iran noted that movement out of Iran altogether has been limited primarily because people are prioritising staying with their families and protecting their property, as well as due to security conditions and logistical constraints.

 

But the north did not remain safe. On 18 March, Israel launched airstrikes in northern Iran for the first time since the war began, targeting Iranian naval vessels at the port city of Bandar Anzali on the Caspian Sea coast. Bandar Anzali was one of the towns to which displaced families from Tehran had fled. The war had followed the displaced population to their refuge.

 

Strikes have since been reported across at least 20 of Iran's 31 provinces. On 22 March, Al Jazeera reported explosions described as "unprecedented" in scale across eastern Tehran, with further strikes confirmed in Khorramabad, Tabriz, Bandar Abbas, Isfahan, Karaj and Ahvaz, a near-nationwide spread of bombardment that leaves few safe havens inside the country's borders.

 

Relatives and friends are sheltering refugees

One of the most significant features of Iran's displacement crisis, distinguishing it from Lebanon's, is that the overwhelming majority of displaced people are not in formal shelters. They are staying with relatives and friends, drawing on family and community networks that have become the primary safety net in the absence of adequate institutional support.

 

This pattern reflects both Iranian social tradition and the practical reality of a crisis that has outpaced the state's capacity to respond. OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) noted that families have been leaving affected areas amid rising insecurity and limited access to essential services, with mass movement difficult to monitor in the early stages of the crisis. The NRC's Iran team, working under extremely difficult conditions, described colleagues lying awake each night listening to explosions and returning each morning to support families in need.

 

The reliance on family networks also conceals the true depth of hardship. Hosting families in the north are themselves under pressure, communities that were modest holiday destinations are now absorbing far greater numbers than they can comfortably support, stretching local food supplies, water, accommodation and public services.

 

National and international aid organisations are short of funds

 The Iranian Red Crescent Society (IRCS) is the primary organised humanitarian presence on the ground. It has mobilised its nationwide network of volunteers, including logistics units, medical services, rapid response teams, search-and-rescue capacity, and pharmacies across the country, to deliver essential humanitarian services. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) launched a 40 million Swiss franc emergency appeal on 10 March to scale up the Red Crescent's work across 30 affected provinces, targeting five million people over 16 months. Areas of focus include emergency shelter, health care, water and sanitation, and mental health support.

 

UNHCR, which has maintained a presence in Iran since 1984 and is the largest UN agency in the country, has kept its reception centres and helplines open throughout the conflict. It has been receiving over 250 calls per day from refugees, primarily Afghans, seeking assistance and information. UNHCR is working with national authorities to assess emerging needs, though ongoing communications disruptions and strikes have made operations extremely difficult.

 

The NRC aims to reach 50,000 Iranians and Afghans across nine provinces with cash assistance, education services, protection, legal assistance, and shelter support. UNHCR's Iran response plan requires $80 million to support 2.8 million affected people. As of late March, funding remains critically short.

 

Afghans are caught up in Iran’s refugee crisis

Iran's displacement crisis has a second, deeply vulnerable layer: the approximately 1.65 million refugees and others in need of international protection living in Iran, the vast majority of them Afghans. These communities, concentrated in cities that are now under bombardment, have limited access to support networks, restricted freedom of movement and in many cases no legal right to leave the country.

 

More than 35,000 Afghans have made the journey back to Afghanistan from Iran since the start of the war. A further one million Afghans in Iran remain at risk of deportation to a country that, in the NRC's words, "is in no position to receive them." Informal work, the primary livelihood for most Afghans in Iran, has effectively collapsed as businesses have closed and movement within cities has been severely restricted.

 

Sources: UNHCR; Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC); OCHA; IFRC; Iranian Red Crescent Society; IOM; Al Jazeera; Fortune; Refugees International

 

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Israel moves closer to annexing southern Lebanon, with no hope for the local people to return to their homes

25 March 2026: Israel's Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has publicly called for the annexation of southern Lebanon, declaring that the Litani River must become Israel's new northern border. The remarks, made on 23 March, were described by Reuters as the most explicit statement yet by a senior Israeli official on seizing Lebanese territory. They were followed within 24 hours by the Defence Minister confirming that the army intends to control southern Lebanon indefinitely, while Israeli forces continued to destroy the bridges that connect the south with the rest of the country.

 

Speaking on Israeli radio, Smotrich said the military campaign in Lebanon "needs to end with a different reality entirely, both with the Hezbollah decision but also with the change of Israel's borders." He added: "I say here definitively, in every room and in every discussion: the new Israeli border must be the Litani." He also called on Israel to annex the Gaza territory it currently controls, drawing a direct parallel between the two conflicts.

 

The following day, Defence Minister Israel Katz confirmed that the army plans to establish a "security zone up to the Litani", adding: "The principle is clear, where there is terror and missiles, there will be no homes and no residents, and the IDF will be inside." Katz had earlier stated that displaced Lebanese civilians would not be permitted to return south of the Litani until the security of northern Israel was guaranteed, and that he had ordered the military to destroy all bridges over the river and to accelerate the demolition of homes near the southern border.

 

Smotrich leads a small far-right party within Prime Minister Netanyahu's coalition and has previously made statements that go beyond official government policy. Netanyahu's office did not respond to requests for comment on the annexation remarks. However, with the Defence Minister making near-identical statements, the annexation of southern Lebanon is moving from fringe aspiration toward the language of operational planning.

 

Destroying bridges to create a de facto border

The military dimension of these statements has been visible on the ground. Over the weekend (21/22 March), Israel struck the Qasmiyeh bridge near the southern city of Tyre, a main link between southern Lebanon and the rest of the country. On Monday (23 March), Israeli strikes hit two more crossings over the Litani. The destruction of the bridges is consistent with Katz's stated order to sever all river crossings and with a strategy to render the south physically inaccessible and logistically disconnected from the rest of Lebanon.

 

OCHA (United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs) has reported that the destruction of roads, bridges and crossings is hampering the delivery of humanitarian assistance to communities in southern Lebanon, some of which are already struggling to access food, water and fuel. The mayor of Rmeish, a Christian border town whose residents have refused to leave, told Reuters that military convoys must now accompany any attempt to obtain basic supplies. "Already, we have no state electricity, no water, and we have diesel shortages," he said. "If all the routes to the north get cut off, who knows what the future could hold for us."

 

Lebanon's government response

Lebanese President Joseph Aoun condemned the bridge strikes, stating they are "an attempt to sever the geographic link between south of the Litani and the rest of Lebanon, delay the delivery of humanitarian aid, and are part of suspicious plans to establish a buffer zone, entrench occupation, and promote Israeli expansion into Lebanese territory.”

 

Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has said Lebanon did not choose this war and that the government is working to advance negotiations for peace with Israel, though no Israeli response to that initiative has yet been received. Lebanese officials told Reuters that Beirut is counting on foreign powers to apply sufficient pressure on Israel to end the war.

 

Southern Lebanese with nowhere to return to

The practical effect of annexation, even undeclared annexation, would be to make the return of southern Lebanon's population permanently impossible.

 

Before the current conflict, the area strictly south of the Litani River was home to approximately 200,000 people, around 75 per cent of them Shia Muslims. Israeli evacuation orders have applied to the entire zone since 4 March 2026, and all reporting indicates the overwhelming majority have now fled. Even before the current war, more than 64,000 people displaced by the 2024 conflict had been unable to return to their homes, with over 10,000 buildings heavily damaged or destroyed.

 

International condemnation

French President Emmanuel Macron, speaking alongside Lebanon's culture minister at an event in Paris on 23 March, warned that "no occupation, no form of colonisation, not here, not in the West Bank, nor anywhere else, is able to ensure the security of anybody.”

 

Earlier, at a European Council press conference, Macron had stated that Israel's military operation in Lebanon violates international law, and rejected the idea that a third party could resolve the conflict with Hezbollah by force, insisting that only Lebanese authorities have the legitimacy to do so. France has offered to host direct talks between Lebanon and Israel in Paris.

 

The UN Human Rights Office has stated that Israel's sweeping evacuation orders and mass displacement of the Shia population of southern Lebanon and Beirut may amount to a possible war crime. Human Rights Watch published a detailed assessment on 23 March drawing the same conclusion, noting that through the lens of Katz's ‘no return’ declaration, the displacement of the Shia population looks less like a temporary military necessity and more like a move to permanently displace the civilian population based on their religion.

 

Arab governments and Turkey have been vocal in condemning Israeli annexation moves in the occupied West Bank in recent weeks. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the UAE, Egypt and Turkey all issued strong condemnations of Israeli settlement expansion in February.

 

Background to Israel’s borders with its neighbours

Smotrich explicitly compared his vision for southern Lebanon to Israel's current control of 53 per cent of Gaza and its occupation of Mount Hermon in Syria — describing the Litani as "the new Israeli border with Lebanon, like the Yellow Line in Gaza and the buffer zone on Mount Hermon in Syria."

 

The parallel is deliberately drawn: in each case, a military operation has been followed by a declared intention not to withdraw, and by the physical destruction of infrastructure that would allow a displaced population to return.

 

Israel has never formally defined its borders with Lebanon, Syria or the Palestinian territories. They are currently demarcated by 1949 and 1967 ceasefire lines. Any unilateral annexation of Lebanese territory would violate international law and UN Security Council resolutions, including Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon war and explicitly called for Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory.

 

Sources: Reuters; Al Jazeera; Middle East Eye; Times of Israel; Newsweek; Human Rights Watch; UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR); OCHA; French presidency; Lebanese presidency

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Israel rules out a return of Lebanese civilians to the south, with far-right settlers watching on

22 March 2026: Israel's Defence Minister, Israel Katz, has stated that Lebanese people displaced from southern Lebanon will not be allowed to return to their homes until Hezbollah has been removed from the area. The declaration, made on 16 March as Israel expanded its ground offensive, raises profound questions about the future of southern Lebanon, and who, if anyone, will be permitted to live there.

 

The 'no return' declaration

Katz's statement was unambiguous. Hundreds of thousands of residents of southern Lebanon and Beirut's southern suburbs, he said, would not be permitted to return south of the Litani River until the safety of communities in northern Israel was ensured. Since Israel has made clear it intends to continue military operations until Hezbollah is disarmed, a process that could take months or years, the declaration amounts to an open-ended ban on return for a large part of Lebanon's population.

 

Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera suggest that Israel's ground occupation of southern Lebanon is designed not only as a military operation but as a negotiating tool, holding Lebanese territory to force a new security architecture on Lebanon, under which the Lebanese army would disarm Hezbollah under US and French supervision. Whether Israeli troops would ultimately withdraw, or whether currently occupied areas would be permanently transformed into an unpopulated buffer zone, remains open.

 

Southern Lebanon and the Litani River

Southern Lebanon, as used in the current conflict, refers primarily to the area south of the Litani River, Lebanon's largest river, which flows roughly 28 kilometres north of the Israeli border at its nearest point before emptying into the Mediterranean Sea north of the city of Tyre. This zone covers approximately 850 square kilometres and was home to around 200,000 residents before the current conflict, approximately 75 per cent of whom are Shia Muslims. It is an overwhelmingly rural and agricultural area of hills and villages, running along Lebanon's southern border with Israel.

 

The broader administrative region, encompassing the South Lebanon and Nabatieh governorates, is larger still, with a combined pre-war population of close to one million. The Litani River became a key geopolitical boundary under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Lebanon war and called for the withdrawal of all armed personnel from the area south of the river. Israel's current evacuation orders use the same line, and in recent days have extended them northward to the Zahrani River, pushing the exclusion zone deeper into Lebanese territory.

 

The southern suburbs of Beirut, known in Arabic as Dahiyeh, are geographically separate from southern Lebanon, lying some 70 kilometres north of the Israeli border. They are a densely populated urban district of the capital, home to around 500,000 people and long the political and social heartland of Hezbollah. Israel has issued evacuation orders for Dahiyeh, too, and struck it repeatedly. More than one million people across all these areas combined, southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and Dahiyeh, have been displaced since 2 March.

 

Far-right Jewish settlers have an eye on southern Lebanon

The prospect of a depopulated southern Lebanon has not gone unnoticed in Israel's far right. A religious Zionist organisation called Uri Tzafon has for several years been openly advocating the annexation and settlement of southern Lebanon, modelling its ambitions on the Golan Heights, Syrian territory that Israel occupied and subsequently annexed, and from which much of the Syrian population fled or was expelled after 1967.

 

On 11 March, a member of the Knesset from Finance Minister Smotrich's party publicly urged that Israel "conquer territory in southern Lebanon, destroy the villages there, and annex the territory to the State of Israel." Such statements have alarmed Lebanese observers, for whom the idea of Israeli settlement in the south no longer sounds entirely abstract.

 

That said, no settlements were established in southern Lebanon during Israel's 1982-2000 occupation, and support for Jewish settlement in Lebanon remains very small, with no mainstream politicians endorsing the idea.

 

The West Bank precedent

What gives the settler fringe's ambitions a sharper edge is what is happening simultaneously in the occupied West Bank. A UN Human Rights Office report published on 17 March found that the Israeli government has accelerated unlawful settlement expansion and annexation of large parts of the occupied West Bank, forcibly displacing over 36,000 Palestinians, with 1,732 documented incidents of settler violence in a single year.

 

In December 2025, Israel's security cabinet approved 19 new settlements in the West Bank, bringing the total approved by the current government to 68 in three years and the overall number of official settlements to approximately 210, compared to 141 in 2022. In February 2026, the cabinet approved sweeping new measures to expand Israeli powers across the West Bank, including easing the sale of Palestinian land to Israeli settlers and extending Israeli civil administrative control into areas previously under Palestinian Authority jurisdiction. Amnesty International described the measures as an unprecedented escalation in Israel's drive to make annexation of the West Bank irreversible.

 

All Israeli settlements in the occupied territories are considered illegal under international law. The international community has repeatedly condemned their expansion, to little effect.

 

Fazit

For many watching events in Lebanon, the concern is less that settlers will arrive tomorrow in the villages of the south, and more that a prolonged depopulation, combined with the Israeli government's well-documented appetite for territorial facts on the ground, could over time create conditions that are difficult to reverse. The Lebanese government has made the return of displaced people its first priority. Whether Israel will allow that return, and on what terms, is likely to define the next phase of this conflict.

 

Sources: Lebanese government; Israeli Defence Ministry; Al Jazeera; Times of Israel; UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR); Amnesty International; +972 Magazine; Jewish Currents; Anadolu Agency; Britannica

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

One million Lebanese displaced as Israel intensifies air and ground offensive

17 March 2026: The number of people displaced in Lebanon has passed one million, one in six of the country's entire population, as Israel expanded its ground offensive into southern Lebanon this week (16 March onwards). The milestone was confirmed by Lebanese authorities on Monday (16 March), the same day the Israeli military announced what it described as a ‘limited and targeted’ ground operation in the south.

 

The displacement has been driven by relentless Israeli airstrikes, artillery bombardments, and sweeping evacuation orders covering large swathes of the country. Around 14 per cent of Lebanese territory is currently under Israeli evacuation warnings, according to the Norwegian Refugee Council.

 

Lebanon is running out of shelters

Most of the one million displaced have sought refuge with family or friends. More than 130,000 are staying in over 600 official collective shelters, mostly public schools and municipal buildings, many of which are already at or beyond capacity. Others are sleeping in cars, on streets, or in the open. Shelters are reported to be overflowing, with families sleeping on the pavement outside.

 

The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has launched an appeal for $19 million to scale up its emergency response, warning that host communities are under immense strain as the sudden influx of displaced families places pressure on local infrastructure, housing and public services. A UN-Government of Lebanon Inter-Agency Flash Appeal has also been launched, seeking $308.3 million.

 

Air strikes killed more than 800 people in two weeks

Israeli strikes have killed 886 people since 2 March, including 111 children and 38 health workers, with 2,141 wounded. An earlier Lebanese Ministry of Public Health breakdown reported that of those killed, the large majority were men, with women and children accounting for the remainder. The ministry does not distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, meaning the male figures include both civilians and fighters.

 

The UN has noted that children account for approximately 20 per cent of fatalities and women for roughly 21 per cent, a pattern the UN describes as a recurring feature of modern conflict, in which civilians, and particularly children, bear a disproportionate share of the casualties.

 

Healthcare has been severely affected. By 12-13 March, 18 healthcare workers had been killed and 48 injured in 26 attacks on healthcare facilities. Strikes have also destroyed bridges and damaged roads, hampering both civilian movement and humanitarian access.

 

The Israeli ground offensive

Israel has expanded its ground incursion, deploying additional troops to create what it describes as an ‘expanded buffer zone’ and a ‘forward defence area’ in southern Lebanon, with the stated aim of pushing Hezbollah fighters farther from Israeli border communities. The Israeli army has instructed all residents to leave southern Lebanon and move north of the Zahrani River.

 

Western governments have expressed alarm. France, Canada, Germany, Italy and the United Kingdom have jointly warned that a large-scale Israeli ground operation in Lebanon would have devastating humanitarian consequences and could lead to a protracted conflict.

 

Lebanon receives less aid than in previous conflicts

The UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Lebanon has described the situation as a ‘perfect storm’ of overlapping crises. The current crisis is broader than the 2024 escalation, while Lebanon is in a weaker position. Global humanitarian funding cuts have reduced available resources, and the strong regional support that helped during the previous crisis is largely absent this time, as Gulf states, which provided significant assistance in 2024, are themselves dealing with the consequences of the wider regional war.

 

Syrian refugees are on the move again

Almost 100,000 people have crossed from Lebanon into Syria since the escalation began on 2 March, among them Syrian refugees who had already fled conflict once and rebuilt fragile lives in Lebanon, only to be forced to flee again. Lebanon had been hosting approximately one million Syrian refugees before the current conflict, half a million having already returned to Syria following the fall of the Assad government in late 2024.

 

The broader regional picture remains alarming. UNHCR reports that more than 4.1 million people are now internally displaced across Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon and Pakistan since the start of the conflict, with a further 117,000 having sought refuge in another country.

 

Sources: Lebanese Ministry of Public Health; OCHA; IOM; UNHCR; Norwegian Refugee Council; UN News; Al-Monitor/Reuters; France 24; The National; Times of Israel

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

More than three million Iranians have fled their homes since the beginning of the war

13 March 2026: The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, has confirmed that up to 3.2 million people have been internally displaced inside Iran since the Middle East war began on 28 February, the most authoritative and alarming assessment of the crisis to date. Between 600,000 and one million Iranian households are now temporarily displaced, according to preliminary assessments, and the figure is likely to continue rising as hostilities persist.

 

For context, 3.2 million represents approximately 3.5 per cent of Iran's entire population of 90 million, uprooted in less than two weeks.

 

Urban residents are seeking safety in rural areas

Most of the displaced are reportedly fleeing from Tehran and other major urban areas towards the north of the country and rural areas to seek safety. This is consistent with what was reported in the early days of the conflict, when the Chalus highway linking Tehran to the Caspian Sea coast became one of the main escape routes. US and Israeli airstrikes have been heaviest on Tehran and other urban centres, driving the mass exodus from the capital.

 

Many of the displaced have fled to nearby provinces or are staying with relatives and host communities. Others have sought temporary shelter in public buildings and informal settlements, placing additional pressure on local resources.

 

Afghan refugees caught in the crisis

Also affected are refugee families living in Iran, mostly Afghans, who are particularly vulnerable given their already precarious situation and limited support networks. Families are leaving affected areas amid rising insecurity and limited access to essential services. Iran was hosting approximately 1.65 million refugees, the vast majority of them Afghans, before the conflict began.

 

Aid organisations are barely coping

The scale of displacement is placing enormous strain on humanitarian organisations already operating in difficult conditions. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) has launched a 40 million Swiss franc emergency appeal to scale up the work of the Iranian Red Crescent Society across 30 affected provinces over the next 16 months, prioritising those directly affected by hostilities and disruptions to essential services. Areas of focus include emergency shelter, health care, water and sanitation, and mental health support.

 

UNHCR, the largest UN agency in Iran with a presence since 1984 and offices in Tehran and five field locations, has kept its reception centres and helplines open throughout the conflict and is receiving over 250 calls per day from refugees. The agency is working with national authorities to assess emerging needs, though communications outages and ongoing strikes have made operations extremely difficult.

 

The Iranian Red Crescent Society has reported that nearly 20,000 civilian buildings, including at least 16,000 residential units, have been affected by strikes, along with 77 healthcare facilities and 65 schools. The World Health Organisation reports approximately 1,300 people killed and 9,000 injured in less than two weeks, including around 200 children.

 

Middle East humanitarian operations face escalating costs

The displacement inside Iran is part of a broader regional picture. UNHCR reports that more than 4.1 million people have been internally displaced across Afghanistan, Iran, Lebanon and Pakistan since the beginning of the escalation, with a further 117,000 having sought refuge in another country.

 

The conflict is also disrupting global humanitarian supply chains. Bottlenecks at the Strait of Hormuz and damage to the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai, the Middle East's largest container terminal and a key hub for international aid logistics, are driving up the costs of humanitarian operations worldwide, with shipping containers facing emergency surcharges of $3,000.

 

Sources: UNHCR; IFRC; WHO; Iranian Red Crescent Society; Al Jazeera; Common Dreams; Council on Foreign Relations; UN Secretary-General's Daily Press Briefing

 

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Some 700,000 newly displaced people in Lebanon threaten the country’s social cohesion

11 March 2026: Ten days into the war in the Middle East, Lebanon is experiencing one of the most severe displacement crises in its modern history. More than 667,000 people have now registered on the Lebanese government's online displacement platform, an increase of over 100,000 in a single day, with the overall figure continuing to rise. The UN Refugee Agency, UNHCR, and the United Nations Children’s Fund, UNICEF, reported that nearly 700,000 people, including around 200,000 children, have been forced from their homes, adding to the tens of thousands already uprooted from previous fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.

 

For a country of only 5.8 million people, this represents approximately one in eight of the entire population displaced in just ten days.

 

The UN relief coordination office, OCHA, reports that 294 people have been killed in Lebanon and more than 1,000 injured in the first eight days of the war. By 8 March, the death toll had risen to more than 400, including 83 children, with close to 800 injured.

 

Public buildings serve as emergency shelters

The Lebanese government has opened 538 shelters, but most locations are overcrowded. The shelters are primarily public schools, municipal buildings, and other public facilities, designated and coordinated by Lebanon's Ministry of Social Affairs and Ministry of Public Health. Humanitarian organisations are assigned their shelters by those two ministries and deploy their staff and resources accordingly.

 

The actual services within the shelters are delivered by a broad coalition of international and local aid organisations working alongside the Lebanese government. UNHCR alone has delivered around 168,000 emergency items to more than 63,000 displaced people across over 270 government-designated collective shelters, including mattresses, blankets, sleeping mats, sleeping bags, solar lamps, and jerry cans. Supplies are dispatched through NGO partners, municipal authorities, and the Lebanese Red Cross to reach even hard-to-access areas. UNHCR, MSF, UNICEF, the World Food Programme, the International Rescue Committee, UNRWA, the Order of Malta, Lebanon, CARE, and Anera are among the many other organisations responding on the ground.

 

Despite these efforts, the system is under severe strain. The UN 2026 Lebanon Response Plan is only 14 per cent funded, and contingency stocks remain critically low. Many displaced families have no option but to sleep in their cars or on roadsides, and overcrowding in shelters is raising serious concerns about disease transmission and safety.

 

Syrian refugees return to their home country

Among the most striking aspects of the crisis is the reversal of movement across the Lebanese-Syrian border. UNHCR reports that over 80,000 Syrians have crossed from Lebanon into Syria since the escalation began on 2 March. Syria opened the coastal Arida border crossing specifically to allow its citizens to return, with Syrian Red Crescent and civil defence teams stationed there to provide immediate assistance.

 

Among those crossing are Syrian refugees who had been planning to return home in the coming months, and others who rushed to return due to the current escalation. UNHCR teams are present at Syrian border crossings alongside authorities and partners to support those arriving with essential relief.

 

Most arrivals are heading to areas already under strain from previous waves of returns, including Damascus, Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Homs, Hama, and Daraa, regions facing significant challenges due to damaged infrastructure and shortages of basic services.

 

Syrian returnees described their decision to cross as voluntary, driven by fear of Israeli military operations, though the journey out of Lebanon was not straightforward. Lebanese authorities imposed financial penalties on those who had previously entered the country irregularly, requiring payment of fines as a condition for receiving an official exit permit.

 

Lebanon had been hosting approximately 1.5 million Syrian refugees, the highest number per capita of any country in the world. As of February 2026, Lebanese officials estimated around one million Syrian refugees remained in Lebanon, after roughly half a million had already returned to Syria following the fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2023. The current crisis has dramatically accelerated that return, though the conditions awaiting those crossing back are far from stable.

 

Lebanon, a country entirely dependent on foreign aid

More than 4.1 million people, over 70 per cent of Lebanon's population, were already in need of humanitarian assistance before the March 2026 attacks. Lebanon's humanitarian response plan last year received only a third of the funding it required. The renewed conflict has overwhelmed a system that was already close to breaking point.

 

Sources: UNICEF; UNHCR; OCHA; International Rescue Committee; MSF; EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid; Order of Malta Lebanon/Vatican News; Euronews; The New Arab; Levant24; Project HOPE; Anera

 

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

UN migration chief warns Europe to prepare for refugee surge from the Middle East

7 March 2026: The head of the world's leading migration agency has warned that a large-scale refugee crisis could reach Europe rapidly if the war in the Middle East continues to escalate, and has called on European governments to begin contingency planning without delay.

 

Amy Pope, Director General of the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), said in Brussels that a migration crisis triggered by the US-Israeli strikes on Iran could unfold rapidly. Drawing a comparison with events four years ago, she pointed to the Ukraine conflict, in which millions of people crossed the border within days.

 

Pope stressed that when a conflict involves countries close to Europe, it is essential to monitor population movements and begin contingency planning. She noted that in previous episodes of attacks on Iran, people had first left major cities to stay with family members. The key triggers for larger movements of people, she said, would be a continuation and expansion of the conflict and damage to civilian infrastructure.

 

The IOM chief said the first planning priority must be how to support the neighbouring countries that could absorb migrants and refugees in the first instance, specifically naming Turkey, Iran's immediate neighbour to the west.

 

The IOM has underlined that across the Middle East region, more than 16 million people are already living in internal displacement as a result of conflict, violence, and disasters, a figure it warns could rise significantly if tensions continue to escalate.

 

Iran itself hosts a large migrant population, including an estimated 4.4 million Afghan and 290,000 Iraqi nationals, whose access to services and livelihoods is already under severe strain. While no large-scale cross-border outflows have been confirmed, internal movements from major cities, including Tehran, Shiraz, Isfahan, and Tabriz, towards rural and peripheral areas have been observed. Border areas with Turkey, Iraq, Armenia, and Pakistan are under close monitoring by humanitarian partners and national authorities.

 

The European Union has said it is committed to an earlier and more comprehensive approach than it took during the 2015–16 crisis, when more than one million refugees from Syria and Afghanistan arrived in the EU, including support for refugee host countries along the lines of the 2016 agreement with Turkey. Currently, most movements are taking place within countries, but the EU has acknowledged that closing borders to Iranians poses direct risks to people's lives.

 

EU Migration Commissioner Magnus Brunner said that no major movements had been observed at Iran's external borders, but that the European Commission was enhancing preparedness through closer monitoring and reinforcing cooperation with UN agencies and partner countries. Greece has also announced stricter monitoring of asylum applications from Iranian nationals.

 

Analysts warn, however, that large-scale displacement does not begin with spectacular figures but with a steady trickle that, if a conflict drags on, can turn into a wave that is difficult to contain. With a population of nearly 90 million, any significant destabilisation of Iran could trigger refugee flows far exceeding those seen in recent conflicts. A further complication is that Iran has hosted millions of Afghans for decades. If the conflict forces the Iranian authorities to prioritise internal security and cut costs, deportations of Afghans could accelerate, producing a mixed flow of Iranians and Afghans heading towards Turkey and onward to Europe.

 

As in 2015, Turkey would be the first major recipient and filter. The precedent of the 2016 EU–Turkey migration agreement looms large: a significant increase in arrivals from Iran would give Ankara renewed negotiating leverage with Brussels. If controls were relaxed, pressure would fall on Greece, Bulgaria, and the Western Balkan route, reactivating a corridor that shaped European politics a decade ago.

 

Cyprus, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency, is also closely involved. Cyprus activated the EU's Integrated Political Crisis Response mechanism on 3 March — a tool previously used in the early stages of the Ukraine war, the Covid outbreak, and the 2015 migration crisis. Earlier this year, Pope had visited Nicosia for talks on migration preparedness, acknowledging that Cyprus understands what it means to be on the frontline of migration pressure.

 

Sources: IOM; InfoMigrants; Yahoo News/dpa; European Conservative; IOM Situation Report March 2026; Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty; UN News

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Israel’s threat to 500,000 Beirut residents condemned by the UN Human Rights Office

6 March 2026: On 5 March, Israel issued a blanket evacuation order for the entire southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. The order applies to the densely populated Dahiyeh area, home to approximately half a million people. Residents were told to ‘save your lives and evacuate your homes immediately’ and given specific designated escape routes northward. Strikes on the area followed within hours. Beirut's international airport was also suspended on Thursday amid the threat of further attacks on the capital.

 

Traffic was gridlocked across Beirut as panicked residents attempted to flee. The evacuation order for Dahiyeh came a day after Israel had already issued a blanket order for all residents south of the Litani River, an area comprising around eight per cent of Lebanese territory, to leave their homes.

 

The death toll from Israeli attacks on Lebanon since the conflict resumed on 2 March has risen to at least 123 people, with 683 wounded, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health.

 

Humanitarian organisations report that shelters are overwhelmed and cannot accommodate the hundreds of thousands forced to flee. People can be seen seeking shelter along roads at almost every corner. Among those newly displaced are not only Lebanese residents but also Syrian refugees and Palestinian refugees who had been living in Beirut's southern suburbs, now forced to flee for a second or third time.

 

More than 80 towns and villages have been emptied following successive evacuation orders. Israeli estimates suggest around 350,000 people will be forced from their homes, on top of roughly 85,000 frontline villagers who never returned from earlier rounds of displacement. Israel has stated its aim is to establish a permanent "security zone" along the Lebanese border, though the depth of the proposed zone remains unclear.

 

The UN Human Rights Chief, Volker Türk, said on Friday (6 March) that the scale of the evacuation orders raised serious concerns under international humanitarian law, describing them as ‘blanket, massive displacement orders’ affecting hundreds of thousands of people and warning that they risked amounting to forced transfer, which is prohibited under the laws of war. Human Rights Watch echoed the concern, noting that the orders make no provision for older people, the sick and those with disabilities who are unable to leave without assistance.

 

Flights at Beirut-Rafic Hariri International Airport were suspended on Thursday amid Israeli threats of further attacks, deepening the sense of isolation for those still in the city.

 

The Lebanese government has opened shelters and urged displaced people to head north, but aid organisations warn that resources are far outpacing capacity. Lebanon's humanitarian response plan was already only a third funded before the current crisis began.

 

Sources: AP; Al Jazeera; Washington Post; The National; Arab News; Human Rights Watch; UN Human Rights Office

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Israel's mass evacuation order displaces 60,000 in southern Lebanon

5 March 2026: The renewed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which resumed on 2 March following the US-Israeli attack on Iran, has triggered a rapidly worsening displacement crisis across Lebanon. What began as rocket fire from Hezbollah into northern Israel has escalated within days into Israeli ground incursions, mass airstrikes and sweeping evacuation orders covering a significant portion of the country.

 

On 4 March, Israel issued a forced evacuation order for all residents south of the Litani River, an area comprising roughly eight per cent of Lebanon's landmass and home to around 250,000 people, approximately five per cent of the country's population. Residents were instructed to move north immediately and warned that anyone remaining or moving southward would be placing their lives in danger. Evacuation orders have now been issued to more than 100 villages and towns across southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley.

 

In the 24 hours to 5 March, nearly 60,000 people, including 18,000 children, were newly displaced, bringing the total to tens of thousands already uprooted from their homes. More than 12,000 families have found refuge in at least 300 shelters opened nationwide, with dozens already at full capacity.

 

More than 84,000 people are currently registered in collective shelters across the country, with numbers doubling within just 24 hours. Hundreds of schools and public buildings have been converted into emergency shelters, while many displaced families are staying with relatives, crowding into small apartments, or sleeping in cars along roadsides. Among those newly displaced are Syrian refugees who had already fled conflict once and rebuilt fragile lives in Lebanon, only to be forced to flee again

 

Roads out of the south are severely congested. Some families have reported a journey of just 30 miles taking six or seven hours. Islamic Relief Aid workers on the ground have described widespread panic and warned that the scale of displacement could reach one million people if the situation continues to deteriorate.

 

UNICEF reported that seven children have been killed and 38 injured in Lebanon in a single 24-hour period. UNICEF's response plan requires $48 million to reach one million people in need, yet only 16 per cent of funding has been received.

 

Human Rights Watch raised serious legal concerns about the sweeping nature of the evacuation orders, noting that older people, the sick and people with disabilities may be unable to comply. The organisation warned that forced displacement is prohibited under international humanitarian law except in strictly limited circumstances, and called on Israel's allies to put pressure on all parties to abide by the laws of war.

 

Sources: UNICEF; UNHCR; International Rescue Committee; Human Rights Watch; Islamic Relief; Al Jazeera; UN News

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Turkey has the capacity to accommodate up to 90,000 refugees

4 March 2026: Turkey is preparing for a possible influx of refugees from Iran. Plans have been drawn up that include buffer zones along the border and the establishment of tent camps, said Interior Minister Mustafa Ciftci. The authorities have initially created the capacity to accommodate up to 90,000 people. However, no unusual movements are currently being observed at the three border crossings.

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Europe warns of a refugee crisis and discusses first responses with partner countries

4 March 2026: The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) has reiterated its warning that the War in the Middle East could trigger a refugee crisis of unprecedented magnitude. Even before the current US-Israeli strikes on Iran, the European agency said that with a population of approximately 90 million, even partial destabilisation of Iran could generate refugee movements of unprecedented magnitude, and that displacement of just 10 per cent of Iran's population would rival the largest refugee flows of recent decades.

 

The report's backdrop is otherwise positive, with news of declining asylum figures. EU+ nations, the EU plus Switzerland and Norway, received around 822,000 asylum applications in 2025, down 19 per cent on the previous year, following an 11 per cent decrease in 2024. The drop was largely driven by fewer applications from Syrians, Bangladeshis and Turks. Afghans filed the most requests at 117,000, a 33 per cent increase, followed by Venezuelans with 91,000.

 

In Lebanon, meanwhile, over 30,000 people have sought shelter following Israeli airstrikes linked to the current war with Iran, with the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) reporting around 11,000 people crossing into Syria on Monday (2 March) alone, more than 20 times the daily average.

 

European Union interior ministers will meet tomorrow, 5 March, to discuss the EU’s co-operation with UN agencies and partner countries.

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Tens of thousands of Tehran residents are leaving the city as air strikes continue

3 March 2026: Tehran, the Iranian capital of nearly 10 million people, has been undergoing a mass civilian exodus since US and Israeli air strikes and bombing began on 28 February 2026.

 

Within hours of the first blasts, the highways leading north and west out of the capital were seized. Petrol stations became flashpoints, with queues stretching hundreds of metres. Supermarket shelves were stripped of food, fuel and medicine. A near-total internet blackout compounded the chaos, cutting off millions of residents from reliable information about where the strikes were heading.

 

The Chalus highway, the main artery linking Tehran with the Caspian Sea region, was restricted to outbound one-way traffic overnight on Monday before reopening on Tuesday (3 March) morning. Highway 49, which feeds into the Chalus route, also experienced severe congestion. Iranian traffic police urged drivers to comply with regulations and to cooperate with officers to maintain safety on a mountainous, difficult road.

 

Those heading north are making for areas such as Rasht, Nur, Chalus, Bandar Anzali and Mahmudabad, popular holiday destinations with some hotel accommodation available. However, there are concerns that an influx of displaced people could quickly lead to shortages, leaving many uncertain of where to go.

 

Israel issued specific evacuation warnings for District 3 in the north of the capital, home to embassies and government buildings. Authorities opened metro stations and schools as makeshift shelters. Many shops remained closed, and fuel rationing began.

 

On Monday, 2 March, the streets of Tehran were largely empty, a sharp contrast to the gridlock of the previous day. Those who remained appeared to stay in their homes. Revolutionary Guard and Basij paramilitary checkpoints appeared on many streets.

 

Several highways run through or along the periphery of areas covered by Israeli evacuation orders, putting civilians on those roads at direct risk. Residents of targeted neighbourhoods have reported a strong sense of anxiety but also solidarity among those who have chosen to stay.

 

The displacement from Tehran is part of a broader internal movement across Iran. Two simultaneous flows are underway: internal displacement toward less-targeted Iranian cities and provinces, and external displacement, with tens of thousands moving toward the Kapikoy border crossing with Turkey. Whether Iran's neighbours are prepared to receive those flows on any scale remains unanswered.

 

Sources: The New Arab; Newsweek; Al Jazeera; Associated Press; The Mirror; Times of Israel

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WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The UN Refugee Agency and others warn of massive displacement and a refugee crisis

2 March 2026: On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive joint military operation, dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury', against Iran, targeting nuclear facilities, ballistic missile programmes, military infrastructure, and senior leadership. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes on Tehran.

 

Iran retaliated immediately, launching waves of missiles and drones at Israel and at US military bases across the region. The conflict has now drawn in Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gulf states within 72 hours of the first strikes.

 

As of the morning of 2 March 2026, the death toll in Iran alone stands at over 555, with dozens more killed across Israel and the broader region. Three US service members have been confirmed killed in Kuwait. The conflict is still escalating.

 

Displacement and refugee warnings

Iran

Iran's National Security Council has issued an advisory urging residents of Tehran to leave the city amid ongoing strikes.

According to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), if just 10 per cent of Iran's population were displaced, the movement would rival the largest refugee crises of this century. If a quarter of the country’s population were to flee, the global refugee population would increase by more than 75 per cent.

 

Alex Nowrasteh, Senior Vice-President at the Cato Institute, had already warned in 2025 that northern border crossings into Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia were being overwhelmed by Iranians attempting to leave, adding that even flows of one million Iranians by the end of 2026, and 2.3 million by 2027, would be a catastrophe.

 

Lebanon

Israel has ordered evacuations across 52 settlements in southern Lebanon and confirmed plans to intensify strikes on Hezbollah. Schools in Beirut are opening their doors to evacuees.

Hezbollah re-entered the conflict on 1 March 2026, firing rockets into northern Israel for the first time since the November 2024 ceasefire. Israel responded with fresh strikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon and has reinforced troop deployment along the border.

 

CNN has geolocated footage showing the top floor of a building ablaze in Ghobeiry, southern Beirut. Heavy traffic was reported on congested highways as residents attempted to flee the capital. The Lebanese government convened an emergency meeting on the morning of 2 March.

 

This new wave of displacement in Lebanon comes on top of an already fragile situation: Israel has been conducting more than 10,000 air and ground attacks in Lebanon since the November 2024 ceasefire agreement, and a strike on the Ein el-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp on 20 February killed two people and caused significant damage to camp infrastructure.

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Further reading from The Immigrant Times: Migrant workers in the Gulf || Gaza refugees are not welcome || Desperate Palestinians flee Gaza || Utopian plan for Gaza excluded Palastenians | North America | South America | Europe | Middle East | Asia | Africa |

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