- Immigrant Times
- Jan 10
- 4 min read
Updated: Jan 13
Venezuelan immigrants in the US are more valuable to the economy than oil
The US government discusses managing Venezuelan oil assets for strategic gain, even as it moves to expel Venezuelan immigrants already generating enormous value within the American economy
By The Immigrant Times
Oil, once sold, is gone, while immigrants create wealth year after year and for generations (Photos: VenezuelAnalysis and AP)
January 2026: In recent weeks, Venezuela’s natural resources, particularly the country’s oil reserves, have moved to the centre of the American government’s political and economic debate. Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, US President Donald Trump publicly expressed his desire for the United States to ‘run’ Venezuela during an extended transition period, including overseeing the country’s oil industry and its exports for the foreseeable future.
Yet a new policy brief from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) urges policymakers to look elsewhere for real economic value. Titled ‘An Analysis of the Fiscal and Economic Gains from Venezuelans on TPS in the United States’, the study argues that Venezuelan immigrants living and working in the US under Temporary Protected Status (TPS) contribute more to America’s prosperity than Venezuelan oil ever could. The Foundation has calculated that over ten years, by removing Venezuelan TPS, the US federal deficit would increase by $70.9 billion, while the nation’s GDP would decrease by $504.4 billion.
The timing of the report is significant. Last summer, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ended TPS for roughly 600,000 Venezuelans, citing claims that conditions in Venezuela under Maduro had improved sufficiently to justify the termination. The decision placed hundreds of thousands of legally employed immigrants at risk of losing their work authorisation and lawful presence.
The NFAP’s policy’s analysis reaches a clear conclusion: Venezuelans on TPS are not a fiscal burden on the United States. They are a net economic gain. Because TPS grants legal work authorisation, Venezuelan recipients are overwhelmingly employed in the formal economy. The study estimates that their collective earnings translate into billions of dollars in economic output over time, alongside substantial contributions to federal, state, and local tax revenues.
Their earnings translate into billions of dollars in economic output over time and generate substantial tax revenues at the federal, state, and local levels. Venezuelans on TPS contribute through income and payroll taxes, as well as through sales and property taxes in the communities where they live. According to the study, these contributions significantly exceed the public costs associated with the services they use.
Beyond direct fiscal effects, the report highlights broader economic benefits. Spending by Venezuelan households supports local businesses, sustains jobs, and produces multiplier effects that ripple through regional economies. In practical terms, the study finds that allowing Venezuelans to work legally boosts economic growth and government revenue, while revoking TPS would weaken both.
In fiscal terms, the study finds that allowing Venezuelans to work legally increases government revenue and economic growth, while revoking TPS would do the opposite.
The economic risks of terminating TPS extend well beyond immigrant households. Employers would lose experienced and trained workers, many of whom are difficult to replace. Industries ranging from health care and construction to logistics and hospitality would face new disruptions.
The NFAP report also warns of an immediate decline in tax revenue if TPS holders are forced out of legal employment. Workers pushed into the shadows contribute less in payroll taxes, earn lower wages, and spend less, all of which reduce economic output.
There are longer-term costs as well. Legal uncertainty discourages investment in human capital. Immigrants unsure of their future are less likely to pursue further education, start businesses, or make long-term commitments such as purchasing homes. Stability, by contrast, promotes integration, productivity, and economic mobility.
The study’s conclusions echo a broader economic principle increasingly emphasised by economists: human capital matters more than natural resources. Countries that rely heavily on extractive resources often experience volatility and stagnation. Those who invest in people, education, skills, entrepreneurship, and labour participation tend to achieve more durable growth.
Venezuela itself offers a stark example. Despite possessing some of the largest oil reserves in the world, years of mismanagement and authoritarian rule have driven economic collapse and mass emigration. Many of those who fled are now contributing productively to the US economy, precisely because they are allowed to work legally.
While the NFAP study is primarily economic, its implications extend further. Venezuelans on TPS are nurses, carers, construction workers, engineers, delivery drivers, and business owners. They are parents of US-born children and active participants in local communities.
Their labour strengthens America’s competitive position globally. As ageing populations and declining birth rates strain advanced economies, access to working-age immigrants has become an economic advantage. TPS, though temporary by design, has often functioned as a pragmatic bridge, allowing people displaced by crisis to contribute while conditions in their home country remain unstable.
Ending TPS for Venezuelans on the premise that conditions have ‘improved’ risks ignoring both economic evidence and lived reality. Even if political circumstances in Venezuela shift, the immediate economic consequences of removing hundreds of thousands of immigrant workers from the US labour force would be felt at home.
The contrast is difficult to ignore. On one hand, US leaders openly discuss managing Venezuelan oil assets for strategic and economic gain. On the other hand, they move to expel Venezuelan immigrants who are already generating value within the American economy. The NFAP study reframes this contradiction. Oil can be extracted once, sold once, and exhausted. People, by contrast, create value year after year, through work, taxes, consumption, innovation and having children, America’s future wealth creators.
Further reading from The Immigrant Times: Venezuelan immigrants contribute billions to the economies of their host countries || Remittances from US-based immigrants || President Trump favours immigrants with money over those with skills || The US capture of President Maduro condemned globally but is celebrated by Venezuela’s diaspora || Venezuelan democracy fighter María Corina Machado awarded the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize ||
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