- Immigrant Times
- Oct 29
- 7 min read
After the fall of Al-Fashir, Sudan’s neighbours face an unprecedented influx of refugees
The Sudan civil war has already produced one of the largest displacement crises in the world: millions have been uprooted internally, and millions more have moved into neighbouring countries since the fighting began in April 2023
A review of reports by international aid organisations (1)
Sudan’s rebel militia fighters celebrate the fall of Al-Fashir (Dafur), while tens of thousands of civilians seek refuge in neighbouring countries. (Photos: Aljazeera)
October 2025: The capture of Al-Fashir (El Fasher), the capital of North Darfur (western Sudan), in late October 2025 by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia (2) marks a potentially catastrophic turning point in Sudan’s civil war. The city had endured an extended siege and repeated attacks since April 2024.
Reports from journalists, satellite analysts, and human-rights bodies describe scenes of mass violence, summary killings, and large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure as RSF militia fighters advanced into areas previously held by Sudanese armed forces. Observers warn that the fall of Al-Fashir risks entrenching a geographic split in Sudan and accelerating ethnic-targeted violence in Darfur.
Beyond the immediate combat, the humanitarian situation in and around North Darfur was already catastrophic before Al-Fashir’s fall. Repeated sieges have decimated food supplies, closed medical facilities and left hundreds of thousands in areas of acute food insecurity. That damage, combined with targeted attacks on displacement camps and civilian neighbourhoods, means any change of control has immediate and dire consequences for civilians, especially non-Arab Fur, Zaghawa and Berti communities who have long feared reprisals.
A crisis like no other
Fighting around Al-Fashir has produced both internal flight and cross-border movement in recent days. Eyewitnesses and aid agencies report thousands fleeing by truck and on foot to nearby towns such as Tawila and to informal sites and existing camps (many of which are already overstretched). Some groups are moving toward the North Darfur periphery; others, particularly those with family or ethnic ties across the border, are attempting to reach Chad. The pace of movement is fast and chaotic, driven by fear of reprisals, loss of shelter and a collapse of services.
At the macro level, the Sudan crisis has already produced one of the largest displacement crises in the world: millions have been uprooted internally, and millions more have moved into neighbouring countries since the fighting began in April 2023.
Pre-existing cross-border flows have been substantial, the International Organisation for Migration (IOM) reports millions of mixed movements into Chad, South Sudan, Egypt, Libya, Ethiopia and the Central African Republic since the war escalated, and those flows spike whenever major towns fall or sieges break. UNHCR and other agencies are warning of fresh outflows from North Darfur following Al-Fashir’s fall.
Precise counts are difficult while fighting is still ongoing, but initial reports from the ground suggest tens of thousands have fled Al-Fashir and adjacent camps in the immediate aftermath of the city’s capture, with many seeking refuge in Tawila and surrounding areas.
Human rights monitors and satellite analysts have also documented grave incidents that increase the risk of mass casualties and forced displacement; that combination makes rapid, large-scale refugee movements likely in the coming days. People on the move face acute protection risks: attacks in transit, family separation, lack of water and sanitation, malnutrition, and interruption of urgent medical care.
For Darfur, the fall of Al-Fashir is both a humanitarian and symbolic loss. The city had been the seat of regional governance, a hub for aid delivery, and, for many, the last hope of protection from the militias that terrorised rural Darfur two decades ago.
Fleeing Al-Fashir
Since early October 2025, tens of thousands have fled Al-Fashir and its surrounding camps, some walking for days to reach safer towns like Tawila and Kabkabiya. Aid groups on the ground describe an “unprecedented movement” of people, many of whom are displaced for the second, third, or even fourth time.
“We have seen entire families arriving with nothing but the clothes they were wearing,” says Dr Mariam Youssif, a field coordinator for Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) in Tawila. “Children are severely malnourished. Mothers are exhausted. Some of the wounded had been hiding for days without treatment.”
According to MSF, clinics in Tawila and Zamzam, a massive displacement camp outside Al-Fashir, are now overwhelmed. Water supplies are dwindling, sanitation systems are failing, and disease outbreaks are already being reported.
Many of the newly displaced are trying to move westward into Chad, crossing dry riverbeds and scrubland patrolled by armed groups. Those who reach the border find makeshift camps where aid agencies are struggling to keep pace. The UNHCR reports that more than 900,000 Sudanese refugees are now in eastern Chad, with new arrivals every day. Most live in tents or open-air shelters, exposed to heat, sandstorms, and sporadic violence.
Chad’s government, itself under strain, has appealed for international support. “We are reaching the limits of what we can do,” said a Chadian interior official in a recent statement. “Our schools, hospitals, and water systems are collapsing under the pressure.”
Aid organisations will not give up, but need help
Despite extraordinary challenges, aid groups are attempting to respond.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has designated North Darfur a “priority crisis zone,” but access is perilous. With roads mined and warehouses looted, most aid now moves through ad-hoc cross-border operations from Chad, a logistical and political minefield.
MSF has redeployed medical teams to emergency clinics in Tawila and Mellit, while the World Food Programme is conducting air-drops to areas still reachable by small aircraft. The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) has activated its displacement tracking system to monitor population movements and identify urgent needs.
But the scale of the crisis far exceeds available resources. Sudan’s 2025 humanitarian appeal is less than 40 per cent funded, leaving agencies unable to expand food distributions, water trucking, or protection programs. “We are watching a humanitarian collapse in slow motion,” says an IOM official. “Without immediate funding and secure access, thousands more could die — not just from violence, but from hunger and disease.”
In neighbouring Chad, aid groups are scrambling to expand reception centres and camps, while also reinforcing border screening to prevent trafficking and family separation. However, limited infrastructure and high insecurity in border areas make these efforts difficult.
A catastrophe looms
The displacement from Al-Fashir is not just a humanitarian story; it is a warning of what may come next. Analysts fear that the RSF’s consolidation in Darfur could trigger new waves of ethnic violence and push Sudan’s conflict deeper into its peripheries, with devastating regional consequences.
“Darfur has always been a bellwether for Sudan’s wars,” says Dr Alex de Waal, a Sudan expert at Tufts University’s Fletcher School. “What happens there doesn’t stay there. If the violence in Al-Fashir spreads west and south, it could destabilise Chad, the Central African Republic, and beyond.”
Already, local tensions are flaring in border regions, where scarce resources are being stretched by the influx of refugees. Aid groups report sporadic clashes between host communities and newcomers over water and firewood, particularly near the Chadian towns of Adré and Abéché.
Inside Sudan, the collapse of governance is accelerating. In many parts of Darfur, armed factions, tribal leaders, and community militias now administer justice, distribute food, and negotiate with aid agencies, roles once reserved for state authorities. “We are witnessing the atomisation of Sudan,” says a regional diplomat based in Addis Ababa. “Every city, every province, is becoming its own fiefdom.
What needs to be done
The international community faces a stark choice: intervene decisively to restore humanitarian access and accountability, or risk watching Sudan slide into a protracted famine and state collapse.
Safe access
Humanitarian corridors must be established, with guarantees from both RSF and SAF commanders to allow aid convoys safe passage. Without this, agencies cannot deliver even the most basic relief.
Funding
The UN has appealed for billions in emergency funding to sustain operations through 2025, but donor fatigue and competing crises have left major gaps. Wealthier nations, particularly in the Gulf and Europe, must step up.
Protecting refugees
Neighbouring countries should grant temporary protection and avoid forced returns. Long-term solutions such as resettlement and humanitarian visas are essential for the most vulnerable.
Accountability
UN Human Rights Council and the International Criminal Court must investigate reports of ethnic killings and deliberate starvation tactics. Accountability is not only a moral imperative, but it may be the only deterrent left against further atrocities.
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(1) Sources and references
• United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Sudan Humanitarian Update, October 2025.
• International Organisation for Migration (IOM), Displacement Tracking Matrix: Sudan Update, 2025.
• UNHCR, Sudan Situation Regional Refugee Response Plan, September 2025.
• Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), Emergency Field Update: North Darfur, October 2025.
• OHCHR, Statement by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights on Al-Fashir, 25 October 2025.
• Reuters, RSF Captures North Darfur’s Al-Fashir After Months of Siege, 2025.
• BBC News Africa, Sudan Conflict: Al-Fashir’s Fall Triggers New Refugee Flows, 2025.
• Human Rights Watch, Ethnic Killings and Mass Displacement in Darfur, 2025.
• World Food Programme (WFP), Sudan Emergency Food Security Update, 2025.
• Interview material from humanitarian workers and displaced civilians collected by international agencies (names withheld for safety).
(2) The Rapid Support Forces (RSF)
The Rapid Support Forces are a paramilitary force formerly operated by the government of Sudan. The RSF grew out of, and is primarily composed of, the Janjaweed militias, which previously fought on behalf of the Sudanese government. Sudan plunged into a civil war in April 2023 after a Power struggle broke out between its army and the Rapid Support Forces.
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